Decline in Total Fertility Rate and India at 2050

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years. In India, the TFR has declined significantly over the past few decades, from 5.0 in 1950-55 to 2.2 in 2015-20, according to data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). This decline in TFR is a result of various factors such as increased access to education and employment opportunities for women, improved access to family planning services, and changing social norms and attitudes towards family size.

The decline in TFR has significant implications for India's population dynamics in 2050. With a lower TFR, India's population growth rate is expected to slow down significantly. According to projections by the United Nations, India's population is expected to reach 1.7 billion by 2050, but the annual population growth rate is projected to decline from 1.3% in 2020 to 0.3% by 2050. This slower population growth rate will have several benefits for India, including reduced pressure on resources such as water, food, and housing, and lower healthcare and education costs per capita.

However, a lower TFR also presents some challenges for India. With a smaller workforce relative to the elderly population, there could be a greater burden on the working-age population to support the elderly through pensions and healthcare services. The government will need to ensure that there are enough jobs and economic opportunities for the working-age population to support this demographic shift.

Moreover, a lower TFR could also lead to a shrinking workforce relative to the dependency ratio (the ratio of dependents - children and elderly - to working-age individuals). This could put pressure on the working-age population to support a larger number of dependents, potentially leading to lower economic growth rates and higher taxes for working individuals.

In conclusion, the decline in TFR presents both opportunities and challenges for India's population dynamics in 2050. While slower population growth rates will have several benefits for India, such as reduced pressure on resources and lower healthcare and education costs per capita, there could also be challenges such as a greater burden on the working-age population to support the elderly and a shrinking workforce relative to the dependency ratio. The government will need to implement policies that cater to these demographic shifts and ensure that there are enough jobs and economic opportunities for all individuals in society.

Low Sex Ratio at Birth: a major concern for Odisha

 Sex Ratio at Birth and Child Sex Ratio denotes the number of girls per 1000 boys, whichare considered as strong indicators of social health. The adverse sex ratios not only indicate poor social health, but also a barrier to attaining sustainable social development.

The child sex ratio of Odisha has been showing a declining trend since 1961. In the 1961 census, Odisha’s ratio was 1,035 which declined to 1,020 in 1971, 995 in 1981, 967 in 1991, 953 in 2001 and 941 in 2011.The National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021) had estimated Odisha's child sex ratio at 894, a sharp decline from 932 in NFHS-4 (2015-2016). The SRS statistical report estimated a fall of 23 points by Odisha in five years from 948 in 2014-16 to 925 in 2018-20. Odisha’s child sex ratio has plummeted to its lowest ever, according to the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) that reported 894 female children for every 1000 males despite central and state government initiatives for the girl child. In 2015-16, the child sex ratio in Odisha was estimated at 932.Although, the overall sex ratio in Odisha has increased from 1,036 in 2015-16 to 1,063 in 2020-21, the child sex ratio has decreased to 894, which is the lowest it has ever been in the state.

The sex ratio at birth in Odisha in 2013 was 956 which decreased to 925 in 2020 (SRS 2018-20). The decline of SRB is a major concern for the State.  

The Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Odisha, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), organized a State Level Consultative Workshop on Addressing Low Sex Ratio at Birth in Odisha on 5th December 2023 at Hotel ITC Welcom, Bhubaneswar.

The workshop was conducted in view of the decline of Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) in the state to find out strategies to improve the sex ratio at birth in our State. Some of the reasons commonly put forward to explain the low levels of Sex Ratio at Birth are preference for sons, sex selective abortions, and female foeticide.

The objective of the workshop was to discuss the causes and consequences of the low SRB in the state and to develop a comprehensive action plan to improve the situation. The workshop also aimed to sensitize the district health officials and build their capacities on strengthening the implementation of the Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (PC & PNDT) Act, 1994, which prohibits sex selection and regulates the use of diagnostic techniques.

The workshop was attended by around 100 participants, including the Additional District Public Health Officers (Family Welfare)-cum-District Nodal Officers, PC & PNDT and Assistant Managers-LAIS of all districts, state level health officers and concerned consultants, legal and medical experts, social scientists, members of civil societies and other stakeholders.

The workshop was inaugurated by the Mission Director, NHM Odisha in presence of Dr. Bijaya Kumar Panigrahi, Director, Family Welfare, Odisha, Md. Nadeedm Noor, Head of Office, UNFPA, Odisha, Director, I &PR Dept., Director, Social Welfare, W&CD Department, Director, Health Services of the State. The workshop generated a fruitful dialogue and paved a way to develop an action plan to address the issue of low SRB in Odisha and to ensure the survival, protection, and empowerment of the girl child.

Read more at:

https://pragativadi.com/state-level-workshop-on-low-sex-ratio-at-birth-in-odisha/ 

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